Early Season View

   The biggest story of the first week of baseball has been the Boston Red Sox.  The predicted World Series Champions have had a completely healthy lineup and pitching staff, but still have an 0-6 record.  Being swept in Texas is nothing to be ashamed of, but losing all three games to a Cleveland Indians team, who is more than likely the worst team in baseball, is simply unacceptable.  The Adrian Gonzalez-led lineup for the most part has been hitting but the pitching staff has the worst ERA in the whole league.  Jon Lester was shelled in Texas, and still got another loss last night despite giving up only one run in seven innings.  This pitching staff is something that most experts said was the small weak spot on a seemingly invincible Red Sox team.  However, no one saw it being this bad to start the season. Entering play on Thursday, Boston had lost its first five games and its starting pitchers had an 8.53 ERA (worst in the AL) while six of its nine everyday players were batting .222 or below.    There is no real reason to worry, although no team has started 0-6 and won the World Series.  No 0-6 team has ever even reached the World Series, but this team will be around for the whole stretch run; it is just off to a slow start.  The Red Sox pitching, while not great, is way better than an ERA over eight.  The Red Sox are just too talented to be held to last place in the American League East, look for them to bounce back in a big way.

Predictions

Well it’s that time of year again.  Opening Day was yesterday so it is time to make some predictions for this year’s playoff teams and awards.

 First, I will start in the AL East.  In a two horse race, I believe that the Boston Red Sox will edge out the New York Yankees for the division crown.  Boston put together the best offseason out of any team in baseball this year.  As much as their pitching is a concern, I will take Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K over Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Ivan Nova, and Freddy Garcia.  Don’t worry Yankees fans.  Whoever loses this race is a lock for the wild card.  In the AL Central, I like the Detroit Tigers to find a way, even though the Twins and the White Sox will be right with them.  The Tigers have a very underrated pitching staff, led by all-star Justin Verlander and rising stud Max Scherzer.  Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez will carry them to the division title this year.  In the AL West, I believe the Rangers will hold of the Oakland Athletics in probably the closest division race all season.  The Rangers just have enough pitching to overcome the A’s terrible hitting.  If the Athletics can get absolutely any run support for their stud rotation, they have a great chance of upending the Rangers in the West.

In the National League East, I still like the Phillies’ wily veterans over the Atlanta Braves, but it’s going to be very close.  The Phillies have serious age and injury concerns, but that pitching staff will keep them in it all year.  The Braves will be the wild card winners for the second year in a row.  I like the Milwaukee Brewers to surprise the Reds and Cardinals in the NL Central this season.  The Brewers finally have the combination of pitching and hitting that can carry them to the postseason with the additions of Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum.  In the NL West, I like the Colorado Rockies to win.  The Rockies are always baseball’s best second half team, but expect Troy Tulowitzki to finally be healthy and lead the Rox to a NL West crown.

My World Series prediction is The Red Sox over the Phillies in six games, which pains me as a Phillies fan.  The Sox are just too well rounded to lose this season and the once mighty Phils’ lineup will not be scratch up enough support for their Big Four.

Spring Training Report

     With only a few days left in spring training, I thought that it would be a good time to not only look back at the questions of spring training, but look forward to the upcoming season.  Spring training this year, as is the same every year, was marred by high profile injuries.  I have already mentioned Adam Wainwright's lost season and Chase Utley's uncertain future, but other teams are now facing the injury bug.  Brian Wilson, star closer/crazy person and postseason hero Cody Ross of the San Francisco Giants now will most likely start out the season on the disabled list.  One of the famed “Four Aces” in Philadelphia, Roy Oswalt, just was struck with a line drive in the neck, although all indications are that he will be fine.  New Brewers ace Zach Greinke will miss a while after messing up his knee playing pickup basketball down in Florida.  Looking forward though, you can see the steps that some players are taking this year.  Mike Stanton, sophomore standout for the Florida Marlins, played his first spring training game, lighting up Cy Young hopeful Clay Bucholz to the tune of two homers and seven runs batted in.  Neftali Feliz said that he wanted to be a starter for the Rangers, but the Rangers had other plans.  The reigning rookie of the year will once again close for Texas, probably for the best. 

         This season looks to have several incredible division battles ahead in the National League.  In the NL East, there are the now injury-plagued favorites, the Phillies.  However, the Braves and even the Marlins could challenge them for the crown.  The NL Central features the Reds, Brewers and the Cardinals.  In my opinion, this is the most contested division.  All three of these teams are about even in terms of hitting, although the Brewers now have an advantage in pitching.  The NL West is the Giants’ to lose, although the Rockies are definitely on the rise and could challenge the defending NL champs.

Utley's Injury

     With all the talk of the Big Four in Philadelphia, many people forgot about the offensive struggles of the aging lineup the Phillies had last season.  Many people attributed the struggles to the injuries to pretty much every major contributor in the lineup.  Most Philadelphians thought that this bad luck could not continue this season.  However, the start of the year is looking like an eerie premonition of what is to come this season.  Chase Utley, one of the key cogs from the Phillies' former powerhouse lineups, is now out indefinitely with a knee injury that no one seems to have a real diagnosis for.  How will this hurt the Phillies, who have already lost right-handed slugger Jayson Werth to free agency and superprospect Domonic Brown to a broken bone in his right hand?  It will no doubt be a chink in the armor of the National League favorites.  Suddenly, that already struggling offense employs journeyman utility player Wilson Valdez and an unreliable bench player in Ben Francisco.  Can this offense really back their rotation with enough run support to make a serious run to another title?  It would seem possible only if Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels can hold their opponents under four runs every game.  The Phillies still have many stars, who can still carry the squad.  This should not take the Phillies out of the top 4 teams in the National League, but they are no longer the lock that they seemed to be before Utley's injury.

Teams to Watch

This season there are two teams that all of baseball should be watching out for: the Milwaukee Brewers and the Oakland Athletics.  Both teams were one dimensional last season, but big offseason improvements have created an even greater level of optimism from two already solid organizations. 

The Brewers dealt for Zach Greinke, one of the few true aces in the whole league, and Shaun Marcum, a solid number two from the Blue Jays.  While the Brewers gave up some of their top prospects, adding Greinke and Marcum to a rotation that already featured rising star Yovani Gallardo was well worth the price.  Now, the Brewers, who were once just an offensive power, have a pitching staff to back up their feared lineup.  Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder lead a very powerful offense that finishes in the top-5 of the National League every year in runs.  The Brewers are in win-now mode as it appears that this is Fielder’s last season with the organization.  With the new pitching, the Brewers should challenge the Reds and Cardinals in the NL Central.

The Oakland A’s already had the top pitching staff in the majors last season.  Their four best starters are all 28 or younger, creating the dangers for an even better finish than their second place run last season.  Last season, they had the second worst offense in the whole American League.  However, the A’s went out and got some hitting help with former Royals outfielder David DeJesus and Hideki Matsui.  If Oakland can get any offense out of their new additions, the young rotation should carry the A’s to at a challenge of the first place Texas Rangers.  Watch out this year for the Oakland Athletics and the Milwaukee Brewers to take the whole league by surprise and challenge for their division crowns.

Cards Lose an Arm

The Cardinals lost their top pitcher today when it was reported that Adam Wainwright would need Tommy John surgery.  Wainwright will miss the entire 2011 season and, depending on his recovery, may not be ready for the 2012 opener.  Wainwright has been one of the most dominant pitchers of the last two seasons.  Last year, Wainwright, who won 20 games last year and was runner-up for the NL Cy Young Award, felt arm stiffness after Monday's throwing session. He had experienced soreness toward the end of last season and didn't pitch in September.  The righty’s devastating twelve to six curveball has made him a stud in the majors since he became a starter following his stint as closer.  Wainwright, who saved the final game of the Cardinals’ 2006 World Series win against the Tigers, has posted sub 3.00 ERAs for the last two years.  This just adds to an offseason of misery for the Cards, who could not agree to a long-term deal with Albert Pujols.  Pujols will test the open market next offseason, and, unless St. Louis ups their offer, it looks like this may be Pujols last year in a Cardinals uniform.  Already troubled by this, the Cardinals now need to replace Wainwright with Chris Carpenter as opening day starter.  That is not a bad trade, but now the once strong rotation looks a lot thinner.  Without Wainwright, St. Louis will start the always interesting Kyle Lohse and the simply awful Miguel Batista.  It is tough to see the Cardinals winning their division, which features the defending champion Cincinnati Reds and the surging Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers just got their ace, Zach Greinke in the offseason, as well as a solid number three in Shaun Marcum.  Look out St. Louis, tough times look to be ahead for the Cards without Wainwright.

Stock Watch

RISING:
Oakland A’s starters: Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill are all progressing very quickly. A year after leading the American League in ERA, this young foursome only seems to be moving up.  Anderson and Gonzalez are the best fantasy options, although the others are still worth owning despite low strikeout numbers.

Mat Latos, San Diego Padres: Latos is one of the best young pitchers in baseball.  He puts up great numbers in strikeouts and ERA.  Although the Padres will not provide him with many wins this year, Latos must still be looked at as an elite pitcher.  Playing in the canyon that is Petco Park, the young righty should be seen as a top option in the quest for a fantasy championship.  Do not be afraid to take him early in your draft.

Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins: Sanchez is a key part of the new youthful core of the Marlins.  Sanchez can hit for power (19 home runs last season) and had a solid .273 batting average last season.  In another year, Sanchez would have been a front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.  With the emergence of Mike Stanton, as well as the continued support of Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins’ first baseman should continue his rise up the ranks of first basemen.

Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians: Perez very quietly put up some big numbers with the Indians last season.  He took the job from Kerry Wood after Wood went down with an injury, and never looked back.  His 23 saves in a partial season are impressive enough, but his 1.71 ERA and almost 8.71 K/9 show signs of good things to come.  Perez was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals a few years ago, and he is starting to show why he was so highly regarded by the Indians front office.

Falling:

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox: Beckett has slowly been falling apart over the last few years.  Once seen as one of the top ten pitchers in fantasy baseball, it is impossible to imagine Beckett regaining that title any time soon.  He should not be avoided in drafts, but he has been overvalued by many people, who do not realize that this is the same Beckett as three years ago.

Dan Haren, LA Angels of Anaheim: Haren had an ugly year last year.  After being traded from the Diamondbacks, where he struggled significantly, his season kept getting worse.  Haren was arguably one of the top pitchers in baseball as late as 2 years ago.  The question remains whether last year was a fluke or a sign of things to come for the right hander.  Expect a better year, but not as good as he has had in the past.

Carlos Peña, Chicago Cubs: Hitting .196 is unacceptable, plain and simple.  While Peña will bring the power numbers, his terrible average puts him beyond the top few tiers of first basemen.  Do not draft him to be your number one first baseman.  He is much better to have as a backup and hope that a change of scenery will result in a big change in his average.  Peña could end up being a nice buy low option, but recognize that he is an incredibly high risk.

Jonathon Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers: Broxton was supposed to be the next great closer in this league, but the big righty has fallen on hard times.  He blew seven of his 29 save opportunities last year and regressed in most major categories.  He lost the closing job to Hong-Chih Kuo, who then converted 12 out of 13 opportunities and made Broxton an afterthought.  Although the Dodgers have claimed that there will be an open competition this spring, it is hard to see Broxton’s 4.04 ERA and 7 blown saves holding up to Kuo’s 1.20 ERA and overall superior numbers.

The Big Fantasy Questions

Will Joe Mauer’s power return?

Mauer looked like he had finally figured out the power stroke in 2009.  However, in 2010, he regressed back to 9 homers.  Mauer is making it look like that 28 home run 2009 was an aberration.  Mauer is so good at the other parts of hitting that it should not matter.  You could partially blame the power outage on the new Target Field.  Mauer still hit .327 and hit 43 doubles in his “down year.”  Mauer is an elite catcher, no question about it.  Pick him in the top 5 catchers.

How good are the Phillies Big Four?
The talk of the baseball world has been the Phillies Big Four.  Lee, Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt combine to form one of the most formidable staffs in the history of the game.  All four are obviously worth taking early in drafts.  However, Hamels has not put together two good seasons in a row yet and the rest of the pitchers are aging.  Take Halladay and Lee with no preoccupations, but be careful of Oswalt and Hamels.
How much will the Brewers offense help Zach Greinke?
Greinke is a great pitcher, who was stuck on a bad team.  Suddenly, he is on a team that backs him with an offense that features two of the National League’s premier hitters in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.  If Greinke pitches like he did in Kansas City, he should be a top fantasy option again, as he was two years ago in his Cy Young season.

Who is the top closer?
Brian Wilson and Joakim Soria are the sure-fire top two closers in the league.  Wilson receives more opportunities because of the rest of that Giants pitching staff and a light offense that never seems to blow people out.  However, Soria produces every year despite the tough situation.  Kansas City will not be good once again this year, and Soria’s opportunities will therefore probably suffer a bit, but not as much as one would think.  Wilson takes the edge on this due to ridiculous strikeout numbers, even though Soria is no slouch in that category either.  Go with Wilson as the top closer, but Soria should be 1A.

2011 Busts

Every year, there are several players who never meet their fantasy potential, and these players can ruin a fantasy season when they are taken too high.

Busts always damage hopes of a championship, whether it’s: the usual suspects (guys like Jimmy Rollins, who always seem to let down their owners; the one-year wonder (guys like Ben Zobrist, who only seemed destined for great things; or the power hitter who goes into the huge slump (think Carlos Peña).

This year, there are several players who fantasy owners should stay away from.  These are just a few of them:

Shortstop- Derek Jeter, New York Yankees

Yes, age can actually catch up to even the great Yankee captain.

Jeter showed little power last year and figures to keep declining.  He is going to hit decently, although his batting champion days are over.  Jeter is no longer a top shortstop for fantasy purposes.

If not for the reputation and opinion of Jeter by most people, he would not even make this list because he is already coming off one of his worst offensive seasons.  At age 37 by June, it is not time to once again believe that you can count on Jeter.

There are many other shortstops who will produce better numbers than Jeter this year.  Only go to the Yankee legend if you are in need of runs, where he should still be a big producer.

Third Base- Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays

Bautista came out of nowhere last year.  There is absolutely no way anyone foresaw the 54 home run outburst coming from the Blue Jays third baseman/outfielder.  There is also no way that he can repeat that performance.

The journeyman utility player had only hit 59 homers in 4 seasons before last season.   He never even showed anything close to this kind of power while he was in the minors.  Expect 20-25 homers from him as well as a decline in RBI.

Bautista will bring down your team’s average and in prior years was never a fantasy option.  Treat him as a one-year wonder.

Outfield- Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals

Werth will not have an awful season, but there is no way he matches the numbers he has put up in recent years.  The Nationals’ new right fielder is coming from the second best offense in the National League to the now Dunn-less Nationals.

Werth no longer has the advantage of hitting behind the likes of Utley and Howard, who always seemed to be on base for Werth to knock in.  Werth’s RBI numbers and runs scored will definitely drop.  He is still worth a roster spot, but do not reach to get him as you might if he were in that Phillies lineup.

Starting Pitcher- Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics

Cahill was a vital part of the A’s top ranked pitching staff last season.  A first time All-Star, Cahill put up huge numbers last year, with 17 wins on a team that had one of the worst offenses in baseball.

A lot of Cahill’s numbers must be attributed to a little bit of luck.  His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .237, more than 60 points below the league average.  He doesn’t strike many people out, about 5.31 Ks per 9 innings.  His ERA is bound to rise next year.  Cahill is young and has potential for the future, but next year seems like a “back to earth” type year for the A’s starter.

2011 Breakout Rookies

With the incredible success of rookies in 2010, you have to wonder who will be this year’s Buster Posey or Jason Heyward. Which pitcher will dominate like Neftali Feliz and Jaime Garcia?  2010 proved that rookies are key to success in the major leagues.  The class of 2011 has a tough act to follow, but there are several players with the talent to put up the same kind of numbers as the 2010 rookies.

Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

There is a reason that Brown was placed as the top prospect many lists by midseason.  Brown’s unique combination of speed, contact and power gives him the potential to be a great outfielder in this league for years to come.  Brown came up in late August last year and showed potential, but was hurt by a lack of at bats, hitting only .210 in a Phillies uniform.  However, Brown’s numbers will not stay as bad as they were last year with his first taste of major league pitching.  The Phillies have plainly said that Brown is their future star.  Now, with the signing of Jayson Werth by the Nationals, it is only a matter of time before Brown takes over right field in Philadelphia.

Aroldis Chapman RP/SP, Cincinnati Reds

Chapman should go without even mentioning.  The guy has an arm that is absolutely electric, unlike anything that people have seen over the last few decades.  His one question mark comes in his role.  Will he be a starter or a reliever?  After watching him blow that fastball by most major league hitters and following it up with an absolutely wicked slider, it is not a stretch to think that he could become a top major league pitcher.  Chapman has obvious value as a starting pitcher with his incredible strikeout rate (19 in 13 1/3 innings as a reliever) and the potential for wins on a good young Reds team.

Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Jennings has been pegged as the next Carl Crawford, and seems like a shoo-in to win a starting outfield job after Crawford’s departure.  Jennings is a prototypical leadoff hitter.  He hit .299 in the minors and is a demon on the bases.  Last year combined between Triple-A Durham and a brief stint with the Rays, Jennings stole 39 bases in 45 attempts.  The one part of Jennings game that separates him from his predecessor is the lack of power in Jennings game.  If you are looking for home runs, look elsewhere because Jennings had only 3 for Durham in 399 at bats.  Still, in the Rays offense, hitting in front of Longoria and Upton, Jennings should be a good source of runs and steals.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
Moustakas is Kansas City’s third baseman of the future.  He has the tools to be a .300 hitter with the potential to hit thirty homers and drive in one hundred runs every year.  The lefty has a smooth swing and absolutely destroyed Double-A pitching last year.  The only question that remains is when the former second overall pick will be called up to permanently take the royals starting third base job.  Moustakas has unlimited potential and could become one of best third basemen in baseball, but he will probably start out at AAA Omaha before making an appearance with the Royals.

Welcome/ Offseason Review

This blog is devoted to Major League Baseball, in its entirety.  There will be no focus on one single team, although, as a staunch Phillies fan, some bias will show through.  I will report on the big stories and the big games every week.  Baseball is my passion.  I study the sport more than anything else.  As a baseball enthusiast, I promise to keep my hometown bias out of it as much as I can.

         Why care about baseball?  Baseball is the one sport that best combines individual matchups with a team effort.  This is the sport where strategy is evident on every pitch and every swing.  There is a reason baseball is known as the national pastime, much to the chagrin of the many football supporters throughout the country. 

         I decided that for my first official post that I would look at some of the offseason moves that will shape the league this year.

Cliff Lee to the Phillies: The most hotly watched fall drama was the Cliff Lee saga.  Lee was clearly the best pitcher to move this offseason.  Given his previous success in Philadelphia, Lee should once again be considered one of the top fantasy pitchers.  His command and use of the whole strike zone make it hard for hitters to pick up on what Lee is going to do.  This leads to a good amount of strikeouts.  Playing on the Phillies, Lee should get the opportunity to get plenty of wins this year, especially since he will be going up against the opponent’s number two starter. 

Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to the Red Sox: There is no argument that the Boston Red Sox had the best offseason in the majors.  Gonzalez, who has tremendous opposite field power, should see his numbers soar outside of the caverns of Petco Park.  His home run totals and RBIs will rise greatly with his ability to hit the ball over the Green Monster.  Also, he finally has an offense to work with, unlike the Padres had put around him.  Crawford will also benefit from the quality lineup he is placed into.  However, his numbers will not rise as much.   The Red Sox look like the team to beat this season.

Zach Greinke to the Brewers: Greinke gets a big boost in the form of some run support, finally.  He should see his win total rise greatly if he can continue his recent success.  Also, the Brewers have put together a nice top three in their rotation combining Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum.   If their pitching can produce like they have in the past, then the Brewers could pose a very big threat to the Cardinals and the Reds in the NL Central.