Thursday, February 17, 2011

Stock Watch

RISING:
Oakland A’s startersBrett AndersonGio GonzalezDallas Braden and Trevor Cahill are all progressing very quickly. A year after leading the American League in ERA, this young foursome only seems to be moving up.  Anderson and Gonzalez are the best fantasy options, although the others are still worth owning despite low strikeout numbers.

Mat Latos, San Diego Padres: Latos is one of the best young pitchers in baseball.  He puts up great numbers in strikeouts and ERA.  Although the Padres will not provide him with many wins this year, Latos must still be looked at as an elite pitcher.  Playing in the canyon that is Petco Park, the young righty should be seen as a top option in the quest for a fantasy championship.  Do not be afraid to take him early in your draft.

Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins: Sanchez is a key part of the new youthful core of the Marlins.  Sanchez can hit for power (19 home runs last season) and had a solid .273 batting average last season.  In another year, Sanchez would have been a front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.  With the emergence of Mike Stanton, as well as the continued support of Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins’ first baseman should continue his rise up the ranks of first basemen.

Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians: Perez very quietly put up some big numbers with the Indians last season.  He took the job from Kerry Wood after Wood went down with an injury, and never looked back.  His 23 saves in a partial season are impressive enough, but his 1.71 ERA and almost 8.71 K/9 show signs of good things to come.  Perez was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals a few years ago, and he is starting to show why he was so highly regarded by the Indians front office.


Falling:
Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox: Beckett has slowly been falling apart over the last few years.  Once seen as one of the top ten pitchers in fantasy baseball, it is impossible to imagine Beckett regaining that title any time soon.  He should not be avoided in drafts, but he has been overvalued by many people, who do not realize that this is the same Beckett as three years ago.
Dan Haren, LA Angels of Anaheim: Haren had an ugly year last year.  After being traded from the Diamondbacks, where he struggled significantly, his season kept getting worse.  Haren was arguably one of the top pitchers in baseball as late as 2 years ago.  The question remains whether last year was a fluke or a sign of things to come for the right hander.  Expect a better year, but not as good as he has had in the past.

Carlos Peña, Chicago Cubs: Hitting .196 is unacceptable, plain and simple.  While Peña will bring the power numbers, his terrible average puts him beyond the top few tiers of first basemen.  Do not draft him to be your number one first baseman.  He is much better to have as a backup and hope that a change of scenery will result in a big change in his average.  Peña could end up being a nice buy low option, but recognize that he is an incredibly high risk.

Jonathon Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers: Broxton was supposed to be the next great closer in this league, but the big righty has fallen on hard times.  He blew seven of his 29 save opportunities last year and regressed in most major categories.  He lost the closing job to Hong-Chih Kuo, who then converted 12 out of 13 opportunities and made Broxton an afterthought.  Although the Dodgers have claimed that there will be an open competition this spring, it is hard to see Broxton’s 4.04 ERA and 7 blown saves holding up to Kuo’s 1.20 ERA and overall superior numbers.

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