Thursday, February 3, 2011

2011 Busts


Every year, there are several players who never meet their fantasy potential, and these players can ruin a fantasy season when they are taken too high.
Busts always damage hopes of a championship, whether it’s: the usual suspects (guys like Jimmy Rollins, who always seem to let down their owners; the one-year wonder (guys like Ben Zobrist, who only seemed destined for great things; or the power hitter who goes into the huge slump (think Carlos Peña).
This year, there are several players who fantasy owners should stay away from.  These are just a few of them:
Shortstop- Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Yes, age can actually catch up to even the great Yankee captain.
Jeter showed little power last year and figures to keep declining.  He is going to hit decently, although his batting champion days are over.  Jeter is no longer a top shortstop for fantasy purposes.
If not for the reputation and opinion of Jeter by most people, he would not even make this list because he is already coming off one of his worst offensive seasons.  At age 37 by June, it is not time to once again believe that you can count on Jeter.
There are many other shortstops who will produce better numbers than Jeter this year.  Only go to the Yankee legend if you are in need of runs, where he should still be a big producer.
Third Base- Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
Bautista came out of nowhere last year.  There is absolutely no way anyone foresaw the 54 home run outburst coming from the Blue Jays third baseman/outfielder.  There is also no way that he can repeat that performance.
The journeyman utility player had only hit 59 homers in 4 seasons before last season.   He never even showed anything close to this kind of power while he was in the minors.  Expect 20-25 homers from him as well as a decline in RBI.
Bautista will bring down your team’s average and in prior years was never a fantasy option.  Treat him as a one-year wonder.
Outfield- Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals
Werth will not have an awful season, but there is no way he matches the numbers he has put up in recent years.  The Nationals’ new right fielder is coming from the second best offense in the National League to the now Dunn-less Nationals.
Werth no longer has the advantage of hitting behind the likes of Utley and Howard, who always seemed to be on base for Werth to knock in.  Werth’s RBI numbers and runs scored will definitely drop.  He is still worth a roster spot, but do not reach to get him as you might if he were in that Phillies lineup.
Starting Pitcher- Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics
Cahill was a vital part of the A’s top ranked pitching staff last season.  A first time All-Star, Cahill put up huge numbers last year, with 17 wins on a team that had one of the worst offenses in baseball.
A lot of Cahill’s numbers must be attributed to a little bit of luck.  His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .237, more than 60 points below the league average.  He doesn’t strike many people out, about 5.31 Ks per 9 innings.  His ERA is bound to rise next year.  Cahill is young and has potential for the future, but next year seems like a “back to earth” type year for the A’s starter.

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