Cards Lose an Arm

The Cardinals lost their top pitcher today when it was reported that Adam Wainwright would need Tommy John surgery.  Wainwright will miss the entire 2011 season and, depending on his recovery, may not be ready for the 2012 opener.  Wainwright has been one of the most dominant pitchers of the last two seasons.  Last year, Wainwright, who won 20 games last year and was runner-up for the NL Cy Young Award, felt arm stiffness after Monday's throwing session. He had experienced soreness toward the end of last season and didn't pitch in September.  The righty’s devastating twelve to six curveball has made him a stud in the majors since he became a starter following his stint as closer.  Wainwright, who saved the final game of the Cardinals’ 2006 World Series win against the Tigers, has posted sub 3.00 ERAs for the last two years.  This just adds to an offseason of misery for the Cards, who could not agree to a long-term deal with Albert Pujols.  Pujols will test the open market next offseason, and, unless St. Louis ups their offer, it looks like this may be Pujols last year in a Cardinals uniform.  Already troubled by this, the Cardinals now need to replace Wainwright with Chris Carpenter as opening day starter.  That is not a bad trade, but now the once strong rotation looks a lot thinner.  Without Wainwright, St. Louis will start the always interesting Kyle Lohse and the simply awful Miguel Batista.  It is tough to see the Cardinals winning their division, which features the defending champion Cincinnati Reds and the surging Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers just got their ace, Zach Greinke in the offseason, as well as a solid number three in Shaun Marcum.  Look out St. Louis, tough times look to be ahead for the Cards without Wainwright.

Stock Watch

RISING:
Oakland A’s starters: Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill are all progressing very quickly. A year after leading the American League in ERA, this young foursome only seems to be moving up.  Anderson and Gonzalez are the best fantasy options, although the others are still worth owning despite low strikeout numbers.

Mat Latos, San Diego Padres: Latos is one of the best young pitchers in baseball.  He puts up great numbers in strikeouts and ERA.  Although the Padres will not provide him with many wins this year, Latos must still be looked at as an elite pitcher.  Playing in the canyon that is Petco Park, the young righty should be seen as a top option in the quest for a fantasy championship.  Do not be afraid to take him early in your draft.

Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins: Sanchez is a key part of the new youthful core of the Marlins.  Sanchez can hit for power (19 home runs last season) and had a solid .273 batting average last season.  In another year, Sanchez would have been a front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.  With the emergence of Mike Stanton, as well as the continued support of Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins’ first baseman should continue his rise up the ranks of first basemen.

Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians: Perez very quietly put up some big numbers with the Indians last season.  He took the job from Kerry Wood after Wood went down with an injury, and never looked back.  His 23 saves in a partial season are impressive enough, but his 1.71 ERA and almost 8.71 K/9 show signs of good things to come.  Perez was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals a few years ago, and he is starting to show why he was so highly regarded by the Indians front office.

Falling:

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox: Beckett has slowly been falling apart over the last few years.  Once seen as one of the top ten pitchers in fantasy baseball, it is impossible to imagine Beckett regaining that title any time soon.  He should not be avoided in drafts, but he has been overvalued by many people, who do not realize that this is the same Beckett as three years ago.

Dan Haren, LA Angels of Anaheim: Haren had an ugly year last year.  After being traded from the Diamondbacks, where he struggled significantly, his season kept getting worse.  Haren was arguably one of the top pitchers in baseball as late as 2 years ago.  The question remains whether last year was a fluke or a sign of things to come for the right hander.  Expect a better year, but not as good as he has had in the past.

Carlos Peña, Chicago Cubs: Hitting .196 is unacceptable, plain and simple.  While Peña will bring the power numbers, his terrible average puts him beyond the top few tiers of first basemen.  Do not draft him to be your number one first baseman.  He is much better to have as a backup and hope that a change of scenery will result in a big change in his average.  Peña could end up being a nice buy low option, but recognize that he is an incredibly high risk.

Jonathon Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers: Broxton was supposed to be the next great closer in this league, but the big righty has fallen on hard times.  He blew seven of his 29 save opportunities last year and regressed in most major categories.  He lost the closing job to Hong-Chih Kuo, who then converted 12 out of 13 opportunities and made Broxton an afterthought.  Although the Dodgers have claimed that there will be an open competition this spring, it is hard to see Broxton’s 4.04 ERA and 7 blown saves holding up to Kuo’s 1.20 ERA and overall superior numbers.

The Big Fantasy Questions

Will Joe Mauer’s power return?

Mauer looked like he had finally figured out the power stroke in 2009.  However, in 2010, he regressed back to 9 homers.  Mauer is making it look like that 28 home run 2009 was an aberration.  Mauer is so good at the other parts of hitting that it should not matter.  You could partially blame the power outage on the new Target Field.  Mauer still hit .327 and hit 43 doubles in his “down year.”  Mauer is an elite catcher, no question about it.  Pick him in the top 5 catchers.

How good are the Phillies Big Four?
The talk of the baseball world has been the Phillies Big Four.  Lee, Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt combine to form one of the most formidable staffs in the history of the game.  All four are obviously worth taking early in drafts.  However, Hamels has not put together two good seasons in a row yet and the rest of the pitchers are aging.  Take Halladay and Lee with no preoccupations, but be careful of Oswalt and Hamels.
How much will the Brewers offense help Zach Greinke?
Greinke is a great pitcher, who was stuck on a bad team.  Suddenly, he is on a team that backs him with an offense that features two of the National League’s premier hitters in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.  If Greinke pitches like he did in Kansas City, he should be a top fantasy option again, as he was two years ago in his Cy Young season.

Who is the top closer?
Brian Wilson and Joakim Soria are the sure-fire top two closers in the league.  Wilson receives more opportunities because of the rest of that Giants pitching staff and a light offense that never seems to blow people out.  However, Soria produces every year despite the tough situation.  Kansas City will not be good once again this year, and Soria’s opportunities will therefore probably suffer a bit, but not as much as one would think.  Wilson takes the edge on this due to ridiculous strikeout numbers, even though Soria is no slouch in that category either.  Go with Wilson as the top closer, but Soria should be 1A.

2011 Busts

Every year, there are several players who never meet their fantasy potential, and these players can ruin a fantasy season when they are taken too high.

Busts always damage hopes of a championship, whether it’s: the usual suspects (guys like Jimmy Rollins, who always seem to let down their owners; the one-year wonder (guys like Ben Zobrist, who only seemed destined for great things; or the power hitter who goes into the huge slump (think Carlos Peña).

This year, there are several players who fantasy owners should stay away from.  These are just a few of them:

Shortstop- Derek Jeter, New York Yankees

Yes, age can actually catch up to even the great Yankee captain.

Jeter showed little power last year and figures to keep declining.  He is going to hit decently, although his batting champion days are over.  Jeter is no longer a top shortstop for fantasy purposes.

If not for the reputation and opinion of Jeter by most people, he would not even make this list because he is already coming off one of his worst offensive seasons.  At age 37 by June, it is not time to once again believe that you can count on Jeter.

There are many other shortstops who will produce better numbers than Jeter this year.  Only go to the Yankee legend if you are in need of runs, where he should still be a big producer.

Third Base- Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays

Bautista came out of nowhere last year.  There is absolutely no way anyone foresaw the 54 home run outburst coming from the Blue Jays third baseman/outfielder.  There is also no way that he can repeat that performance.

The journeyman utility player had only hit 59 homers in 4 seasons before last season.   He never even showed anything close to this kind of power while he was in the minors.  Expect 20-25 homers from him as well as a decline in RBI.

Bautista will bring down your team’s average and in prior years was never a fantasy option.  Treat him as a one-year wonder.

Outfield- Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals

Werth will not have an awful season, but there is no way he matches the numbers he has put up in recent years.  The Nationals’ new right fielder is coming from the second best offense in the National League to the now Dunn-less Nationals.

Werth no longer has the advantage of hitting behind the likes of Utley and Howard, who always seemed to be on base for Werth to knock in.  Werth’s RBI numbers and runs scored will definitely drop.  He is still worth a roster spot, but do not reach to get him as you might if he were in that Phillies lineup.

Starting Pitcher- Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics

Cahill was a vital part of the A’s top ranked pitching staff last season.  A first time All-Star, Cahill put up huge numbers last year, with 17 wins on a team that had one of the worst offenses in baseball.

A lot of Cahill’s numbers must be attributed to a little bit of luck.  His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .237, more than 60 points below the league average.  He doesn’t strike many people out, about 5.31 Ks per 9 innings.  His ERA is bound to rise next year.  Cahill is young and has potential for the future, but next year seems like a “back to earth” type year for the A’s starter.